User talk:LackingConfidence

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I hope you enjoy editing here and being a Wikipedian! Please sign your messages on talk pages using four tildes (~~~~); this will automatically insert your username and the date. If you need help, visit the Teahouse, check out Wikipedia:Questions, ask me on my talk page, or ask your question on this page and then place {{Help me}} before the question. Again, welcome! Jimfbleak - talk to me? 15:24, 17 September 2025 (UTC)[reply]

Your submission at Articles for creation: False Confidence Theorem (September 18)

Your recent article submission to Articles for Creation has been reviewed. Unfortunately, it has not been accepted at this time. The reasons left by Avgeekamfot were:

This draft's references do not show that the subject qualifies for a Wikipedia article. In summary, the draft needs multiple published sources that are:

in-depth (not just passing mentions about the subject)
reliable
secondary
independent of the subject

Make sure you add references that meet these criteria before resubmitting. Learn about mistakes to avoid when addressing this issue. If no additional references exist, the subject is not suitable for Wikipedia.

This submission reads more like an essay than an encyclopedia article. Submissions should summarise information in secondary, reliable sources and not contain opinions or original research. Please write about the topic from a neutral point of view in an encyclopedic manner.

The comment the reviewer left was:

All 3 utilized references have overlapping authors (Balch and Martin in 1, Martin in 2, Balch in 3).

Please check the submission for any additional comments left by the reviewer. You are encouraged to edit the submission to address the issues raised and resubmit after they have been resolved.

If you would like to continue working on the submission, go to Draft:False Confidence Theorem and click on the "Edit" tab at the top of the window.
If you do not edit your draft in the next 6 months, it will be considered abandoned and may be deleted.
If you need any assistance, or have experienced any untoward behavior associated with this submission, you can ask for help at the Articles for creation help desk, on the reviewer's talk page or use Wikipedia's real-time chat help from experienced editors.

Avgeekamfot (talk) 02:29, 18 September 2025 (UTC)[reply]

Good morning,

Thanks for the feedback, do you have suggestions on best practice for cases like this? Ryan Martin, Chuanhai Liu, and Michael Balch are the important names with regards to the idea of false confidence. There are a few papers proposing solutions to the satellite conjunction case, but not necessarily to the idea of false confidence itself. There are older papers discussing ideas of probability dilution which is related, but I didn't think they were directly relevant enough to warrant inclusion in the article.

I could remove the reference to Balch's two-sided structure and not mention consonant confidence curves, I would say that this is tangential to the main topic. I just wanted to throw something in there to point to the fact that there are methods available for protecting yourself from false confidence, rather than just throwing out this problem and not having anything constructive to add. I could pull up other relevant papers but the satellite conjunction paper and the Martin & Liu book are enough to get the point across. I suppose it may be useful to provide a source that discusses the false confidence theorem that isn't linked to Ryan Martin, that would address the concern around the lack of secondary sources. But the references here are certainly reliable and in-depth. What constitutes independent when discussing a theorem like this? Would an article discussing false confidence from a separate author count as independent/secondary?

Do you have advice on how to make the article not come across like an essay on such a topic? Does it need to be more dispassionate? I can see how the language I've used makes it quite opinion-y.

Kind Regards,

Alex LackingConfidence (talk) 09:56, 19 September 2025 (UTC)[reply]

The essay issue is secondary to the lack of independent sourcing. Taking a quick look, this article and this article discussing the theorem may be helpful. I would still look for additional sources but the idea is that a Wikipedia article cannot just rehash what the authors of a concept have said about it, it needs to be based on what people independent of it have written. Avgeekamfot (talk) 07:46, 28 September 2025 (UTC)[reply]

I'll have a look for additional papers, but the Lee and Lee paper you linked is unfortunately a misunderstanding of the problem. A CD with a non-zero point mass trivially exhibits false confidence, as does any additive structure.

The Carmichael and Williams paper is relevant, and discusses the Fieller-Criesy problem that Ryan Martin uses on the cover of his book discussing inferential models that are defined to protect from false confidence. I had seen this reference in the past but never given it a read.

Thanks for the feedback. If the current revision still needs more independent sources (it's still very Ryan Martin heavy) I'll see if I can find any more recent commentary on the problem. LackingConfidence (talk) 12:11, 7 October 2025 (UTC)[reply]

Hello, LackingConfidence! Having an article draft declined at Articles for Creation can be disappointing. If you are wondering why your article submission was declined, please post a question at the Articles for creation help desk. If you have any other questions about your editing experience, we'd love to help you at the Teahouse, a friendly space on Wikipedia where experienced editors lend a hand to help new editors like yourself! See you there! Avgeekamfot (talk) 02:29, 18 September 2025 (UTC)[reply]

AfC notification: Draft:False Confidence Theorem has a new comment

I've left a comment on your Articles for Creation submission, which can be viewed at Draft:False Confidence Theorem. Thanks! Theroadislong (talk) 10:15, 19 September 2025 (UTC)[reply]

Thanks for reviewing the article. Apologies, this is my first attempt at making a wikipedia article. The sources I provided are reliable no? Is the issue that they are not independent? It's a relatively little known theorem, so maybe is the problem that it is not notable enough for an article, if other people haven't been writing much about it just yet? LackingConfidence (talk) 10:20, 19 September 2025 (UTC)[reply]

Correct! Theroadislong (talk) 10:46, 19 September 2025 (UTC)[reply]

Your submission at Articles for creation: False Confidence Theorem (December 1)

Your recent article submission to Articles for Creation has been reviewed. Unfortunately, it has not been accepted at this time. The reasons left by Timtrent were:

This submission is not adequately supported by reliable sources. Reliable sources are required so that information can be verified. If you need help with referencing, please see Referencing for beginners and Citing sources.

This draft's references do not show that the subject qualifies for a Wikipedia article. In summary, the draft needs multiple published sources that are:

in-depth (not just passing mentions about the subject)
reliable
secondary
independent of the subject

Make sure you add references that meet these criteria before resubmitting. Learn about mistakes to avoid when addressing this issue. If no additional references exist, the subject is not suitable for Wikipedia.

The comment the reviewer left was:

Because I cannot check the references I cannot tell whether this is a notable theorem or not. Neither can our readers. Please ensure there is a link to the online versions

Please check the submission for any additional comments left by the reviewer. You are encouraged to edit the submission to address the issues raised and resubmit after they have been resolved.

If you would like to continue working on the submission, go to Draft:False Confidence Theorem and click on the "Edit" tab at the top of the window.
If you do not edit your draft in the next 6 months, it will be considered abandoned and may be deleted.
If you need any assistance, or have experienced any untoward behavior associated with this submission, you can ask for help at the Articles for creation help desk, on the reviewer's talk page or use Wikipedia's real-time chat help from experienced editors.

🇵🇸‍🇺🇦 Fiddle^Timtrent Faddle^Talk to me 🇺🇦‍🇵🇸 15:01, 1 December 2025 (UTC)[reply]

Your submission at Articles for creation: False confidence theorem has been accepted

False confidence theorem, which you submitted to Articles for creation, has been created.

Congratulations, and thank you for helping expand the scope of Wikipedia! We hope you will continue making quality contributions.

The article has been assessed as Start-Class, which is recorded on its talk page. Most new articles start out as Stub-Class or Start-Class and then attain higher grades as they develop over time. You may like to take a look at the grading scheme to see how you can improve the article.

Since you have made at least 10 edits over more than four days, you can now create articles yourself without posting a request. However, you may continue submitting work to Articles for creation if you prefer.

If you have any questions, you are welcome to ask at the help desk. Once you have made at least 10 edits and had an account for at least four days, you will have the option to create articles yourself without posting a request to Articles for creation.

Thanks again, and happy editing!

GTrang (talk) 05:33, 19 December 2025 (UTC)[reply]