Tim Tanggap COVID-19 Imperial College

Tim Respons COVID-19 Imperial College (Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team - ICCRT) adalah tim penasihat dan sains yang dibuat oleh Imperial College London untuk mempelajari penyakit koronavirus 2019 dan menasihati pemerintah Britania Raya.[1] Laporan pertamanya diterbitkan pada tanggal 17 Januari 2020. Tim ini dipimpin oleh Neil Ferguson.[2]

Laporan

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Nomor Tanggal Judul
16 2020-04-23 Role of testing in COVID-19 control
The report estimates COVID-19 testing's impact as reducing transmission by 25~33% from populations tested, but also allowing early release from quarantines and creation of Immunity passport based on antibody tests. Tests face technical, legal, and ethical challenges. Tests while helping are complementary to other more potent actions such as self-isolation when symptoms arises, contact tracing and quarantines.
15 2020-04-17 Strengthening hospital capacity for the COVID-19 pandemic
Reports presents the J-IDEA pandemic planner "a hospital planning tool to calculate how much capacity in terms of beds, staff and ventilators is obtained by implementing healthcare provision interventions affecting the management of patient care in hospitals".
14 2020-04-03 Online Community Involvement in COVID-19 Research & Outbreak Response: Early Insights from a UK Perspective
13 2020-03-30 Estimating the number of infections and the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in 11 European countries
12 2020-03-26 The global impact of COVID-19 and strategies for mitigation and suppression
11 2020-03-24 Evidence of initial success for China exiting COVID-19 social distancing policy after achieving containment
10 2020-03-20 Public response to UK Government recommendations on COVID-19: population survey, 17-18 March 2020
9 2020-03-16 Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand
8 2020-03-11 Symptom progression of COVID-19
7 2020-03-09 Estimating infection prevalence in Wuhan City from repatriation flights
6 2020-02-21 Relative sensitivity of international surveillance
5 2020-02-15 Phylogenetic analysis of SARS-CoV-2
4 2020-02-10 Severity of 2019 novel coronavirus (nCoV)
3 2020-01-25 Transmissibility of 2019-nCoV
2 2020-01-22 Estimating the potential total number of novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) cases in Wuhan City, China
1 2020-01-17 Estimating the potential total number of novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) cases in Wuhan City, China

Estimasi

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Estimasi untuk 11 negara Eropa per 28 Maret 2020

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Jumlah populasi yang terinfeksi
Prediksi ICCRT[3] Penghitungan WHO per 29 Maret
Negara Populasi[butuh rujukan] Terinfeksi

(95% range)

Terinfeksi

(rerata %)

Kasus

(est.)

Kasus Terdekteksi

(% pop.)

Austria 8,999,973 0.36%-3.1% 1.1% 99000 8291 0.09%
Belgia 11,579,502 1.3%-9.7% 3.7% 428400 9134 0.08%
Denmark 5,785,741 0.40%-3.1% 1.1% 63600 2201 0.04%
Prancis 65,227,357 1.1%-7.4% 3.0% 1956800 37145 0.06%
Jerman 83,792,987 0.28%-1.8% 0.72% 603300 52547 0.06%
Italia 60,496,082 3.2%-26% 9.8% 5928600 92472 0.15%
Norwegia 5,407,670 0.09%-1.2% 0.41% 22200 3845 0.07%
Spanyol 46,767,543 3.7%-41% 15% 7015100 72248 0.15%
Swedia 10,081,948 0.85%-8.4% 3.1% 312500 3447 0.03%
Swiss 8,637,694 1.3%-7.6% 3.2% 276400 13152 0.15%
Britania Raya 67,803,450 1.2%-5.4% 2.7% 1830700 17093 0.03%

Estimasi untuk dunia

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Perkiraan dampak strategi pengendalian selama 250 hari dengan 3 skenario berbeda.[4]

  1. Tidak terkendali
  2. Terkendali dengan 0.2 kematian per 100.000 kasus per minggu
  3. Terkendali dengan 1.6 kematian per 100.000 kasus per minggu
Skenario #1 Skenario #2 Skenario #3
Infeksi Kematian Infeksi Kematian Infeksi Kematian
Asia Timur & Tenggara 2.117.131.000 15.303.000 92.544.000 442.000 632.619.000 3.315.000
Asia Selatan 1.737.766.000 7.687.000 111.703.000 475.000 629.164.000 2.693.000
Eropa & Asia Tengah 801.770.000 7.276.000 61.578.000 279.000 257.706.000 1.397.000
Amerika Utara 326.079.000 2.981.000 17.730.000 92.000 90.529.000 520.000
Amerika Selatan & Karibia 566.993.000 3.194.000 45.346.000 158.000 186.595.000 729.000
Timur Tengah & Afrika Utara 419.138.000 1.700.000 30.459.000 113.000 152.262.000 594.000
Afrika 1.044.858.000 2.483.000 110.164.000 298.000 454.968.000 1.204.000
Total 7.013.734.000 40.624.000 469.523.000 1.858.000 2.403.843.000 10.452.000

Lihat pula

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Referensi

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  1. ^ Landler, Mark; Castle, Stephen (2020-03-17). "Behind the Virus Report That Jarred the U.S. and the U.K. to Action". The New York Times (dalam bahasa Inggris). ISSN 0362-4331. Diakses tanggal 2020-03-30. 
  2. ^ Adam, David (2020). "Special report: The simulations driving the world's response to COVID-19". Nature. 580 (7803): 316–318. doi:10.1038/d41586-020-01003-6. PMID 32242115. 
  3. ^ Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team (2020-03-30). "Estimating the number of infections and the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in 11 European countries" (PDF). hlm. 35. 
  4. ^ "Report 12 - The global impact of COVID-19 and strategies for mitigation and suppression". Imperial College London (dalam bahasa Inggris). Diakses tanggal 2020-04-04. 

Pranala luar

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