การเลือกตั้งประธานาธิบดีสหรัฐในรัฐเพนซิลเวเนีย พ.ศ. 2563

การเลือกตั้งประธานาธิบดีสหรัฐในรัฐเพนซิลเวเนีย พ.ศ. 2563
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ผู้ใช้สิทธิ%
คะแนนเสียง
99%
ณ เวลา Nov. 19, 2020 3:21 pm EST[1]
 
ผู้ได้รับเสนอชื่อ โจ ไบเดิน ดอนัลด์ ทรัมป์
พรรค เดโมแครต ริพับลิกัน
รัฐเหย้า เดลาแวร์ ฟลอริดา
คู่สมัคร กมลา แฮร์ริส ไมก์ เพนซ์
คะแนนคณะผู้เลือกตั้ง 20 0
คะแนนเสียง 3,456,632 3,375,636
% 49.97% 48.79%
ประธานาธิบดีก่อนการเลือกตั้ง

ดอนัลด์ ทรัมป์
ริพับลิกัน

ว่าที่ประธานาธิบดี

โจ ไบเดิน
เดโมแครต

การเลือกตั้งประธานาธิบดีสหรัฐในรัฐเพนซิลเวเนีย พ.ศ. 2563 จัดขึ้นในวันอังคารที่ 3 พฤศจิกายน พ.ศ. 2563 เป็นส่วนหนึ่งของการเลือกตั้งประธานาธิบดีสหรัฐ พ.ศ. 2563 ที่รัฐทั้ง 50 รัฐและเขตโคลัมเบียจะเข้าร่วม[2] รัฐเพนซิลเวเนียและเลือกประธานาธิบดีในคณะผู้เลือกตั้งตามคะแนนความนิยม รัฐเพนซิลเวเนียมี 20 เสียงในคณะผู้เลือกตั้ง[3] ในวันที่ 7 พฤศจิกายนมีการคาดการณ์ว่าไบเดินชนะการเลือกตั้งในรัฐเพนซิลเวเนียและเขาได้รับการประกาศให้เป็นผู้ชนะการเลือกตั้ง[4]

การคาดการณ์

[แก้]
ที่มา อันดับ วันที่
Princeton Electoral Consortium[5] Safe D (พลิกชนะ) 5 ตุลาคม พ.ศ.2563
The Cook Political Report[6] Lean D (พลิกชนะ) 5 ตุลาคม พ.ศ.2563
Inside Elections[7] Lean D (พลิกชนะ) 5 ตุลาคม พ.ศ.2563
Sabato's Crystal Ball[8] Lean D (พลิกชนะ) 5 ตุลาคม พ.ศ.2563
Politico[9] Lean D (พลิกชนะ) 5 ตุลาคม พ.ศ.2563
RCP[10] Tossup 5 ตุลาคม พ.ศ.2563
Niskanen[11] Likely D (พลิกชนะ) 5 ตุลาคม พ.ศ.2563
CNN[12] Lean D (พลิกชนะ) 23 ตุลาคม พ.ศ.2563
The Economist[13] Likely D (พลิกชนะ) 5 ตุลาคม พ.ศ.2563
CBS News[14] Lean D (พลิกชนะ) 5 ตุลาคม พ.ศ.2563
270towin[15] Lean D (พลิกชนะ) 5 ตุลาคม พ.ศ.2563
ABC News[16] Likely D (พลิกชนะ) 5 ตุลาคม พ.ศ.2563
NPR[17] Lean D (พลิกชนะ) 5 ตุลาคม พ.ศ.2563
NBC News[18] Lean D (พลิกชนะ) 5 ตุลาคม พ.ศ.2563
538[19] Likely D (พลิกชนะ) 5 ตุลาคม พ.ศ.2563

การสำรวจ

[แก้]

การสรุปโดยกราฟ

[แก้]

การสำรวจโดยรวม

[แก้]
Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other/
Undecided
[a] 		Margin
270 to Win October 22 – November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 49.4% 45.7% 4.9% Biden +3.7
Real Clear Politics October 29–November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 48.7% 47.5% 3.8% Biden +1.2
FiveThirtyEight until November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 50.2% 45.6% 4.2% Biden +4.6
Average 49.4% 46.3% 4.3% Biden +3.1

แบบสำรวจ

[แก้]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Jo
Jorgensen
Libertarian 		Howie
Hawkins
Green 		Other Undecided
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. Nov 1–2 499 (LV) ± 4.3% 49%[c] 48% 1% - 0%[d] 0%
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports Oct 31 – Nov 1 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 47%[e] 50% - - 1%[f] –
Research Co. Oct 31 – Nov 1 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 46% 52% - - 2%[g] 4%
AYTM/Aspiration เก็บถาวร 2020-12-16 ที่ เวย์แบ็กแมชชีน Oct 30 – Nov 1 340 (LV) – 49% 51% - - – –
Change Research/CNBC Oct 29 – Nov 1 699 (LV) ± 3.71% 46% 50% 2% - – 2%
Marist College/NBC Oct 29 – Nov 1 772 (LV) ± 4.4% 46% 51% - - 1% 2%
Monmouth University Oct 28 – Nov 1 502(RV) ± 4.4% 45% 50% 1% - 0%[h] 4%
502 (LV) 44%[i] 51% - - – –
45%[j] 50% - - – –
Swayable เก็บถาวร 2020-11-13 ที่ เวย์แบ็กแมชชีน Oct 27 – Nov 1 1,107 (LV) ± 3.9% 48% 50% 2% - – –
Data for Progress Oct 27 – Nov 1 1,417 (LV) ± 2.6% 45% 52% 2% 0% 0%[k] –
Ipsos/Reuters Oct 27 – Nov 1 673 (LV) ± 4.3% 45%[l] 51% 1% 1% 2%[m] –
44%[n] 51% - - 3%[o] 2%
46%[p] 52% - - 2%[q] –
Trafalgar Oct 30–31 1,062 (LV) ± 2.93% 48% 46% 2% - 1%[r] 4%
Frederick Polls/Compete Everywhere[A] Oct 30–31 879 (LV) ± 3% 48% 52% - - – –
Insider Advantage/Center for American Greatness[ลิงก์เสีย][B] Oct 30–31 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 48.7% 47.4% 1.3% - – 2.6%
Siena College/NYT Upshot Oct 26–31 1,862 (LV) ± 2.4% 43% 49% 2% - 0%[s] 5%[t]
Morning Consult Oct 22–31 2,686 (LV) ± 2% 43% 52% - - – –
Emerson College Oct 29–30 823 (LV) ± 3.3% 47%[u] 52% - - 2%[v] –
AtlasIntel Oct 29–30 672 (LV) ± 4% 50% 49% - - 2% –
Targoz Market Research/PollSmart Oct 25–30 998 (LV) – 42% 56% - - 2%[w] –
Public Policy Polling/American Bridge PAC[C] Oct 28–29 1,012 (V) – 45% 52% - - – 3%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Oct 26–29 2,125 (LV) – 45% 50% 1% - 1% 3%
Harvard-Harris/The Hill Oct 26–29 901 (LV) – 46% 51% - - – 3%
ABC/Washington Post Oct 24–29 824 (LV) ± 4% 44% 51% 3% - 0%[x] 1%
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Oct 23–28 419 (LV) ± 5.5% 44% 49% - - 4%[y] 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 1–28 10,599 (LV) ± 1.5% 46% 52% - - – -
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ เก็บถาวร 2020-10-29 ที่ เวย์แบ็กแมชชีน Oct 25–27 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 45%[l] 51% - - 2% 2%
44%[z] 52% - - 2% 2%
47%[aa] 49% - - 2% 2%
Quinnipiac University Oct 23–27 1,324 (LV) ± 2.7% 44% 51% - - 1%[ab] 4%
Swayable Oct 23–26 491 (LV) ± 6% 46% 52% 2% - – –
Civiqs/Daily Kos Oct 23–26 1,145 (LV) ± 3% 45% 52% - - 2%[ac] 1%
Ipsos/Reuters Oct 20–26 655 (LV) ± 4.4% 44%[l] 51% 3% 0% 1%[ad] –
45%[ae] 50% - - 3%[af] 2%
Insider Advantage/Center for American Greatness[B] Oct 25 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 48.5% 45.5% 3.3% - – 2.8%
Trafalgar Group Oct 24–25 1,076 (LV) ± 2.91% 48% 48% 2% - 1%[ag] 1%
Wick Surveys เก็บถาวร 2020-12-03 ที่ เวย์แบ็กแมชชีน Oct 24–25 1,000 (LV) ± 3.1% 49% 47% - - – –
Franklin & Marshall College Oct 19–25 558 (LV) ± 5% 44% 50% 2% - 1%[ah] 3%
Univision/University of Houston/Latino
Decisions/North Star Opinion Research 		Oct 17–25 723 (RV) ± 3.64% 45% 50% - - 3%[ai] 2%
Gravis Marketing Oct 23 602 (LV) ± 4% 44% 51% - - – 5%
Public Policy Polling/American Bridge PAC[D] Oct 21–22 980 (V) – 46% 51% - - – 4%
Civiqs/Dan Hopkins Oct 17–21 1,577 (A) 3% 46% 52% - - – 2%
YouGov/University of Wisconsin-Madison Oct 13–21 669 (LV) ± 4.45% 44% 52% - - 3%[aj] –
Citizen Data Oct 17–20 1,000 (LV) ± 3.1% 39% 44% 9% 0% 1% 7%
CNN/SSRS[ลิงก์เสีย] Oct 15–20 843 (LV) ± 4% 43% 53% 2% - 1%[ak] 1%
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call เก็บถาวร 2020-11-03 ที่ เวย์แบ็กแมชชีน Oct 13–20 416 (LV) ± 5.5% 44% 51% - - 2%[al] 4%
Morning Consult Oct 11–20 2,563 (LV) ± 1.9% 43% 52% - - – –
Fox News Oct 18–19 1,045 (LV) ± 3% 45% 50% 1% - 1%[am] 2%
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports Oct 18–19 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 47% 50% - - 2%[an] 3%
Quinnipiac University Oct 16–19 1,241 (LV) ± 2.8% 43% 51% - - 1%[ao] 5%
Change Research/CNBC Oct 16–19 574 (LV)[ap] – 47% 49% - - – –
Suffolk University/USA Today[1] Oct 15–19 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 42% 49% 1% - 4%[aq] 4%
Ipsos/Reuters Oct 13–19 653 (LV) ± 4.4% 45%[l] 49% 2% 0% 3%[ar] –
45%[as] 49% - - 3%[at] 4%
Trafalgar Group/Restoration PAC[E] Oct 13–15 1,041 (LV) ± 2.96% 46% 48% 3% - 2%[au] 2%
HarrisX/The Hill Oct 12–15 1,289 (LV) – 46% 51% - - – –
Insider Advantage/Center for American Greatness เก็บถาวร 2020-10-17 ที่ เวย์แบ็กแมชชีน[B] Oct 12–13 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 43% 46% 2% - – 9%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Oct 10–13 1,289 (LV) – 43%[ap] 51% 1% 0% – –
Trafalgar Group Oct 10–12 1,034 (LV) ± 2.97% 45% 47% 3% - 3%[av] 2%
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ เก็บถาวร 2020-10-14 ที่ เวย์แบ็กแมชชีน Oct 7–12 800 (LV) – 43%[l] 49% 1% – 1% 6%
42%[aw] 50% 1% – 1% 6%
45%[ax] 47% 1% – 1% 6%
Civiqs/Rust Belt Rising[F] Oct 8–11 600 (LV) ± 4.2% 45% 52% - - 2%[ay] 1%
Ipsos/Reuters Oct 6–11 622 (LV) ± 4.5% 45%[l] 51% 1% 0% 2%[az] –
44%[ba] 51% - - 1%[bb] 4%
Morning Consult Oct 2–11 2,610 (LV) ± 1.9% 44% 52% - - – –
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Oct 9–10 1,145 (LV) – 44%[ap] 49% 1% - – –
Whitman Insight Strategies เก็บถาวร 2020-11-01 ที่ เวย์แบ็กแมชชีน Oct 5–9 517 (LV) ± 4.3% 46% 51% - - 1%[bc] 3%
Baldwin Wallace University Sep 30 – Oct 8 1,140 (LV) ± 3.1% 45% 50% 1% 0% 0%[bd] 4%
YouGov/CCES เก็บถาวร 2020-11-01 ที่ เวย์แบ็กแมชชีน Sep 29 – Oct 7 2,703 (LV) – 44% 52% - - – –
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Oct 4–6 927 (LV) ± 3.22% 42% 49% 1% - 1%[be] 7%
Emerson College Oct 4–5 688 (LV) ± 3.7% 47%[bf] 51% - - 2%[bg] –
Quinnipiac University Oct 1–5 1,211 (LV) ± 2.8% 41% 54% - - 1%[bh] 3%
Ipsos/Reuters Sep 29 – Oct 5 605 (LV) ± 4.5% 45% 50% - - 2%[bi] 3%
Change Research/CNBC Oct 2–4 468 (LV) – 46% 50% - - – –
Monmouth University Sep 30 – Oct 4 500 (RV) ± 4.4% 42% 54% 1% - 0%[bj] 2%
500 (LV) 43%[bk] 54% - - – –
45%[bl] 53% - - – –
YouGov/CBS Sep 30 – Oct 2 1,287 (LV) ± 3.2% 44% 51% - - 2%[bm] 5%
Siena College/NYT Upshot Sep 30 – Oct 2 706 (LV) ± 4.1% 42% 49% 3% - 0%[bn] 5%[bo]
SurveyMonkey/Axios Sep 1–30 4,613 (LV) – 46% 52% - - – 2%
ABC News/Washington Post Sep 21–26 567 (LV) ± 5.0% 45% 54% - - 0%[bp] 1%
Siena College/NYT Upshot Sep 25–27 711 (LV) ± 4.3% 40% 49% 2% - 0%[bq] 8%[br]
TIPP/The Federalist Sep 24–26 774 (LV) ± 3.6% 45% 50% - - 1%[bs] 4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Sep 23–25 1,015 (LV) ± 3.08% 44% 50% 0% – 1%[bt] 5%
Fox News Sep 20–23 856 (LV) ± 3% 44% 51% 2% – 1%[bu] 2%
910 (RV) ± 3% 43% 51% 2% – 2%[bv] 3%
Baldwin Wallace University Sep 9–22 1,012 (LV) ± 3.6% 45% 47% 2% 0% 1%[bw] 5%
Trafalgar Group/Restoration PAC[E] Sep 18–21 1,006 (LV) ± 2.99% 46% 48% 1% 1% 2%[bx] 2%
YouGov/UW-Madison Elections Research
Center/Wisconsin State Journal 		Sep 10–21 642 (LV) – 45% 49% - - – –
Change Research/CNBC Sep 18–20 579 (LV) – 45% 49% - - – –
Franklin & Marshall College Sep 14–20 480 (LV) ± 7.8% 42% 48% - - – –
Hart Research Associates/Human Rights Campaign[ลิงก์เสีย][G] Sep 17–19 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 42% 53% - - – –
CPEC[H] Sep 15–17 830 (LV) ± 2.3% 45% 50% - - 1%[by] 4%
Trafalgar Group (R) Sep 15–17 1,006 (LV) ± 2.99% 45% 47% 2% 1% 2%[bz] 2%
Ipsos/Reuters Sep 11–16 611 (LV) ± 4.5% 46% 49% - - 2%[ca] 4%
Civiqs/Rust Belt Rising[F] Sep 11–15 704 (RV) ± 4.4% 45% 52% - - 1%[cb] 2%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Sep 12–14 1,036 (LV) ± 3.04% 44% 49% 1% 1% 0%[cc] 5%
Climate Nexus Sep 8–11 659 (RV) ± 4% 43% 48% - - 3%[cd] 6%
Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group/AARP Aug 28 – Sep 8 1,600 (LV) ± 2.5% 46% 49% - - 1%[ce] 4%
Marist College/NBC News Aug 31 – Sep 7 771 (LV) ± 4.4% 44% 53% - - 1% 2%
Morning Consult Aug 29 – Sep 7 2,227 (LV) ± (2%-4%) 45%[cf] 50% - - – –
Change Research/CNBC Sep 4–6 829 (LV) – 46% 50% - - 4%[cg] –
TargetSmart เก็บถาวร 2020-10-04 ที่ เวย์แบ็กแมชชีน Sep 3–6 835 (LV) ± 3.4% 44% 51% - - 3% 3%
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. Aug 26 – Sep 4 498 (LV) ± 4.3% 42% 44% - - 6%[ch] 7%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Aug 30 – Sep 3 1,053 (LV) ± 3.02% 43% 48% 1% 1% 1%[ci] 7%
Quinnipiac เก็บถาวร 2020-09-03 ที่ เวย์แบ็กแมชชีน Aug 28 – Sep 1 1,235 (LV) ± 3% 44% 52% - - 1%[cj] 3%
ALG Research/Progressive Policy Institute[I] Aug 26 – Sep 1 500 (LV) – 44% 50% - - – –
Monmouth University Aug 28–31 400 (RV) ± 4.9% 45% 49% 2% 0% 1%[ck] 4%
400 (LV) 46%[cl] 49% - - 2% 3%
47%[cm] 48% - - 2% 3%
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC[E] Aug 26–31 600 (LV) – 45% 51% - - – 4%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Aug 1–31 3,531 (LV) – 45% 53% - - – 2%
Morning Consult Aug 21–30 2,158 (LV) ± (2%–4%) 45% 49% - - – –
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports Aug 25–27 1,000 (LV) ± 3% 48%[cn] 48% - - 4%[co] –
GQR Research/Unite the Country PAC[J] Aug 20–24 971 (LV) ± 4.4% 43% 52% - - – 5%
Franklin & Marshall College Aug 17–24 681 (RV) ± 5.2% 42%[cp] 50% - - 3%[cq] 7%
Change Research/CNBC Aug 21–23 984 (LV) – 46% 49% - - – –
Global Strategy Group/Climate Power 2020
/League of Conservation Voters/Sierra Club เก็บถาวร 2020-09-01 ที่ เวย์แบ็กแมชชีน[K] 		Aug 13–19 801 (RV) ± 3.5% 42%[l] 50% 2% 1% – 5%
43%[cr] 53% - - – 4%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies Aug 16–17 1,006 (LV) ± 3.1% 41% 48% 1% 1% 1%[cs] 8%
Civiqs/Rust Belt Rising[F] Aug 13–17 617 (RV) – 44% 51% - - 3%[ct] 1%
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Aug 11–17 416 (LV) ± 5.5% 45% 49% - - 3%[cu] 3%
Morning Consult Aug 7–16 1,777 (LV) ± (2%–4%) 44% 50% - - – –
Emerson College Aug 8–10 843 (LV) ± 3.8% 47%[cv] 53% - - – –
Change Research/CNBC Aug 7–9 456 (RV) – 44% 48% - - – –
YouGov/CBS Aug 4–7 1,211 (LV) ± 3.7% 43% 49% - - 3%[cw] 5%
OnMessage Inc./Heritage Action[L] Aug 2–4 400 (LV) ± 4.7% 46% 50% - - – 4%
YouGov/University of Wisconsin-Madison Jul 27 – Aug 6 742 (RV) ± 4.9% 41% 50% - - 2%[cx] 5%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jul 1–31 4,208 (LV) – 48% 50% - - – 2%
Change Research/CNBC[2] Jul 24–26 382 (LV) – 46% 48% - - – –
Franklin & Marshall College Jul 20–26 667 (RV) ± 5.5% 41% 50% - - 2%[cy] 6%
Morning Consult Jul 17–26 2,092 (LV) ± 2.1% 42% 50% - - – –
Gravis Marketing[3] Jul 22–24 1,006 (RV) ± 3.1% 45% 48% - - – 8%
Zogby Analytics Jul 21–23 809 (RV) ± 3.4% 43% 44% 4% 2% - 8%
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC[E] Jul 17–22 600 (LV) – 45% 51% - - – 5%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Jul 19–21 1,016 (LV) – 41% 48% 1% 0% 2%[cz] 8%
Fox News Jul 18–20 793 (RV) ± 3.5% 39% 50% - - 5%[da] 6%
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports/American Greatness PAC เก็บถาวร 2020-07-31 ที่ เวย์แบ็กแมชชีน[B] Jul 15–16 750 (LV) ± 4% 46% 51% - - 2%[db] 1%
Spry Strategies/American Principles Project[M] Jul 11–16 700 (LV) ± 3.7% 48% 47% - - – 5%
Monmouth University Jul 9–13 401 (RV) ± 4.9% 40% 53% - - 3%[dc] 4%
401 (LV) 42%[dd] 52% - - 3% 3%
44%[de] 51% - - 2% 3%
Change Research/CNBC Jul 10–12 743 (LV) – 42% 50% - - – –
Trafalgar Group Jun 29 – Jul 2 1,062 (LV) ± 2.92% 43% 48% - - 6%[df] 3%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jun 8–30 2,184 (LV) – 48% 50% - - – 2%
Change Research/CNBC Jun 26–28 760 (LV)[ap] – 44% 50% - - – –
Susquehanna Polling/Fox 43 Jun 15–23 715 (LV) – 41% 46% - - 5% 8%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Jun 14–16 1,125 (LV) ± 2.92% 39% 49% 1% 1% 1%[dg] 9%
Siena College/NYT Upshot Jun 8–16 651 (RV) ± 4.2% 40% 50% - - 3%[dh] 6%
Change Research/CNBC Jun 12–14 491 (LV)[ap] – 46% 49% - - 3%[di] –
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC[E] Jun 8–11 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 42% 54% - - – 4%
Civiqs/Dan Hopkins Jun 6–11 1,221 (A) 3.6% 46% 49% - - – 5%
Civiqs/Dan Hopkins May 30 – Jun 2 2,045 (A) 2.4% 46% 49% - - – 5%
Change Research/CNBC May 29–31 579 (LV)[ap] – 50% 46% - - 2% 2%
Morning Consult May 17–26 2,120 (LV) – 44%[ap] 48% - - – –
Redfield & Wilton Strategies May 10–14 963 (LV) ± 3.2% 39% 48% - - 2%[dj] 11%
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC[E] May 9–13 600 (LV) ± 3.0% 51% 46% - - – 4%
Harper Polling (R) เก็บถาวร 2020-05-01 ที่ เวย์แบ็กแมชชีน Apr 21–26 644 (LV) ± 3.9% 43% 49% - - – 8%
Public Policy Polling[N] Apr 20–21 1,251 (RV) – 44% 51% - - – 5%
Fox News Apr 18–21 803 (RV) ± 3.5 % 42% 50% - - – –
Ipsos Apr 15–20 578 (RV) ± 5.0% 40% 46% - - – –
Suquehanna Research/Fox 43 Apr 14–20 693 (LV) – 42% 48% - - – –
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC[E] Apr 16–18 600 (RV) ± 3.0% 47% 47% - - – 6%
Civiqs/Dan Hopkins Apr 4–8 1,912 (A) 2.5% 47% 47% - - – 6%
Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakes Mar 17–25 973 (RV) ± 3.9% 47% 45% - - – 9%
Change Research Mar 21–23 510 (LV) – 50% 47% - - – 4%
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC เก็บถาวร 2020-12-01 ที่ เวย์แบ็กแมชชีน[E] Mar 19–21 600 (RV) – 47% 45% - - – –
Civiqs/Dan Hopkins Mar 14–18 1,589 (A) 2.7% 48% 46% - - – 6%
YouGov/Yahoo News Mar 6–8 725 (RV) – 40% 46% - - 5%[dk] 8%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus เก็บถาวร 2019-12-09 ที่ เวย์แบ็กแมชชีน Mar 5–7 533 (RV) ± 5.3 % 45% 44% - - – –
Civiqs/Dan Hopkins Feb 27 – Mar 3 2,462 (A) 2.2% 48% 46% - - – 7%
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Feb 12–20 424 (RV) ± 5.5% 47% 47% - - 2% 4%
YouGov Feb 11–20 1,171 (RV) ± 4.0 % 45% 46% - - – –
Quinnipiac University เก็บถาวร 2020-05-13 ที่ เวย์แบ็กแมชชีน Feb 12–18 849 (RV) ± 3.4 % 42% 50% - - 6%[dl] 3%
Expedition Strategies/Progressive Policies Institute Feb 6–18 500 (RV) – 42% 47% - - – 11%


ผล

[แก้]
การเลือกตั้งประธานาธิบดีสหรัฐในรัฐเพนซิลเวเนีย พ.ศ. 2563[20]
พรรค ผู้สมัคร คะแนนเสียง % ±
เดโมแครต Joe Biden
Kamala Harris 		3,450,696 49.98% +2.52%
ริพับลิกัน Donald Trump
Mike Pence 		3,368,278 48.78% -0.4%
ลิเบอร์เทเรียน Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen 		79,186 1.15% -1.23%
เขียนลง 6,680 0.10% -0.11%
Total votes 6,904,840

หมายเหตุ

[แก้]
Partisan clients
  1. ↑ Compete Everywhere primarily supports Democratic candidates
  2. ↑ 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 The Center for American Greatness is a pro-Trump organization
  3. ↑ Climate Power 2020 was created by the League of Conservation Voters, which endorsed Biden prior to the sampling period
  4. ↑ The American Bridge PAC exclusively supports Democratic candidates
  5. ↑ 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.7 The Restoration PAC is a 501 non-profit which supports Donald Trump's 2020 presidential campaign
  6. ↑ 6.0 6.1 6.2 Rust Belt Rising is affiliated with the Democratic Party
  7. ↑ The Human Rights Campaign endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
  8. ↑ CPEC campaigns exclusively for Democratic candidates
  9. ↑ The Progressive Policy Institute endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
  10. ↑ Unite the Country PAC endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
  11. ↑ The League of Conservation Voters and the Sierra Club endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
  12. ↑ Heritage Action is the sister organisation of the Heritage Foundation, which exclusively endorses Republican candidates
  13. ↑ This poll's sponsor is the American Principles Project, a 501(c)(4) organization that supports the Republican Party.
  14. ↑ Poll sponsored by Protect Our Care, a pro-Affordable Care Act organisation
Additional candidates
  1. ↑ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. ↑ Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ↑ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  4. ↑ Would not vote with 0%
  5. ↑ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  6. ↑ "Some other candidate" with 1%
  7. ↑ "Someone else" with 2%
  8. ↑ "Other candidate" and "No one" with 0%
  9. ↑ With a likely voter turnout model featuring high turnout
  10. ↑ With a likely voter turnout model featuring low turnout
  11. ↑ "Other candidate or write-in" with 0%
  12. ↑ 12.0 12.1 12.2 12.3 12.4 12.5 12.6 Standard VI response
  13. ↑ West (B) with 2%; "Some other candidate" and would not vote with 0%
  14. ↑ If only Biden, Trump and "some other candidate" were available
  15. ↑ "Some other candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 0%
  16. ↑ Results considering those who lean towards a given candidate among those initially predisposed towards abstention, indecision or a candidate besides Biden or Trump in the response section immediately above
  17. ↑ "Some other candidate" with 2%
  18. ↑ "Someone else" with 1%
  19. ↑ "Someone else" and would not vote with 0%
  20. ↑ Includes "Refused"
  21. ↑ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  22. ↑ "Someone else" with 2%
  23. ↑ "Not sure/Someone else/Undecided" with 2%
  24. ↑ "None of these" and "Other" with 0%; would not vote with no voters
  25. ↑ "Neither/other" with 4%
  26. ↑ Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
  27. ↑ Results generated with high Republican turnout model
  28. ↑ "Someone else" with 1%
  29. ↑ "Someone else" with 2%
  30. ↑ "Some other candidate" with 1%; West (B) and would not vote with 0%
  31. ↑ If only Biden, Trump and "some other candidate" were available
  32. ↑ "Some other candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 0%
  33. ↑ "Someone else" with 1%
  34. ↑ "Refused" with 1%; "Some other candidate" with 0%
  35. ↑ "Someone else" with 3%
  36. ↑ Includes Undecided
  37. ↑ "Other" with 1%; "None of these" with 0%
  38. ↑ "Neither/other" with 2%
  39. ↑ "Other" with 1%; would not vote with no voters
  40. ↑ "Some other candidate" with 2%
  41. ↑ "Someone else" with 1%
  42. ↑ 42.0 42.1 42.2 42.3 42.4 42.5 42.6 Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  43. ↑ "Refused" with 3%; "Others" with 1%
  44. ↑ "Some other candidate" with 2%; West (B) with 1%; would not vote with 0%
  45. ↑ If only Biden, Trump and "some other candidate" were available
  46. ↑ "Some other candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 0%
  47. ↑ "Someone else" with 2%
  48. ↑ "Someone else" with 3%
  49. ↑ Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
  50. ↑ Results generated with high Republican turnout model
  51. ↑ "Someone else" with 2%
  52. ↑ "Some other candidate" and would not vote with 1%; West (B) with 0%
  53. ↑ If only Biden, Trump and "some other candidate" were available
  54. ↑ "Some other candidate" with 1%; would not vote with 0%
  55. ↑ "Someone else" with 1%
  56. ↑ "Another candidate" with 0%
  57. ↑ "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%
  58. ↑ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  59. ↑ "Someone else" with 2%
  60. ↑ "Someone else" with 1%
  61. ↑ "Some other candidate" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
  62. ↑ "Other candidate" and "No one" with 0%
  63. ↑ With a likely voter turnout model featuring high turnout
  64. ↑ With a likely voter turnout model featuring low turnout
  65. ↑ "Someone else/third party" with 2%
  66. ↑ "Someone else" and would not vote with 0%
  67. ↑ Includes "Refused"
  68. ↑ "Neither" and "Other" with 0%; would not vote with no voters
  69. ↑ "Someone else" and would not vote with 0%
  70. ↑ Includes "Refused"
  71. ↑ "Other" with 1%; "Prefer not to answer" with 0%
  72. ↑ "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%
  73. ↑ "Other" with 1%; would not vote with no voters
  74. ↑ "Other" and would not vote with 1%
  75. ↑ "Another candidate" with 1%
  76. ↑ "Someone else" with 2%
  77. ↑ "Third party candidate" with 1%
  78. ↑ "Someone else" with 2%
  79. ↑ "Some other candidate" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
  80. ↑ "Someone else" with 1%
  81. ↑ "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 0%
  82. ↑ "Neither candidate or other candidate" with 3%
  83. ↑ Would not vote with 1%
  84. ↑ Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  85. ↑ "Other/not sure" with 4%
  86. ↑ "Other" and "Refused" with 3%
  87. ↑ "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%
  88. ↑ "Someone else" with 1%
  89. ↑ "No one" with 1%; "Other candidate" with no voters
  90. ↑ With a likely voter turnout model featuring higher turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  91. ↑ With a likely voter turnout model featuring lower turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  92. ↑ Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight; with voters who lean towards a given candidate
  93. ↑ "Some other candidate" with 4%
  94. ↑ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  95. ↑ "Some other candidate" with 3%
  96. ↑ If only Biden and Trump were candidates
  97. ↑ "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%
  98. ↑ "Someone else" with 3%
  99. ↑ "Neither/other" with 3%
  100. ↑ Including voters who lean towards a given candidate
  101. ↑ "Someone else/third party" with 3%
  102. ↑ "Other" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
  103. ↑ "Some other candidate" with 2%
  104. ↑ West (B) and "Another Third Party/Write-In" with 1%
  105. ↑ "Other" with 4%; would not vote with 1%
  106. ↑ "Some other candidate" with 2%
  107. ↑ "Another candidate" with 3%; "No one" with 0%
  108. ↑ With a likely voter turnout model featuring higher turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  109. ↑ With a likely voter turnout model featuring lower turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  110. ↑ "Other party candidate" with 6%
  111. ↑ "other" with 1%
  112. ↑ "Another candidate" with 2%; would not vote with 1%
  113. ↑ "Libertarian Party candidate/Green Party candidate" with 3%
  114. ↑ "Third party/write-in" with 2%
  115. ↑ "Other" with 2%; would not vote with 3%
  116. ↑ "Someone else" with 1%; would not vote with 5%

อ้างอิง

[แก้]
  1. ↑ "Pennsylvania Election Results 2020". The New York Times. สืบค้นเมื่อ 5 November 2020.
  2. ↑ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. สืบค้นเมื่อ January 3, 2019.
  3. ↑ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. สืบค้นเมื่อ January 3, 2019.
  4. ↑ CNN, Stephen Collinson and Maeve Reston. "Biden wins Pennsylvania, becoming the 46th president of the United States". CNN. สืบค้นเมื่อ 2020-11-07.
  5. ↑ "2020 Electoral Maps from Princeton Election Consortium". Princeton University (ภาษาอังกฤษ). สืบค้นเมื่อ 2020-09-22.
  6. ↑ "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report (ภาษาอังกฤษ). สืบค้นเมื่อ 2019-05-21.
  7. ↑ "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. สืบค้นเมื่อ 2019-05-21.
  8. ↑ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. สืบค้นเมื่อ 2019-05-21.
  9. ↑ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  10. ↑ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  11. ↑ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions เก็บถาวร 2020-04-23 ที่ เวย์แบ็กแมชชีน, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020
  12. ↑ David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. สืบค้นเมื่อ 2020-06-16.
  13. ↑ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. สืบค้นเมื่อ 7 July 2020.
  14. ↑ "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. สืบค้นเมื่อ July 13, 2020.
  15. ↑ "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
  16. ↑ "ABC News Race Ratings". ABC News. July 24, 2020. สืบค้นเมื่อ July 24, 2020.
  17. ↑ "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org (ภาษาอังกฤษ). สืบค้นเมื่อ 2020-08-03.
  18. ↑ "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News (ภาษาอังกฤษ). สืบค้นเมื่อ 2020-08-06.
  19. ↑ "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. สืบค้นเมื่อ 14 August 2020.
  20. ↑ "Pennsylvania 2020 General Election". Green Papers. สืบค้นเมื่อ 2020-09-17.